Regio Pol – Leibniz ScienceCampus SOEP Regio Hub

Project 3: REGIO POL

Phase 2: 2024-2028

The RegioPol project investigates political attitudes and behaviours, focusing on how and why they vary across regions. In its first phase, the project examined contemporary regional contexts, particularly institutional anomie and the geographical polarization of the electorate. The second phase broadens the scope by incorporating a historical dimension, asking, how does history matter in shaping contemporary political attitudes and behaviours across regions.

To explore this, the second phase builds on the “historical persistence” literature, which studies how historical contexts influence contemporary outcomes, emphasizing statistical evidence and regional variation. Economics research, including the Nobel-winning work of Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, has analysed long-term impacts of historical phenomena like colonialism on economic development. Studies on political attitudes and behaviour, though dispersed, have linked historical factors such as authoritarian regimes, war exposure, and agricultural practices to outcomes such as group-based enmity, social capital, or gender norms. Despite these advances, gaps remain in understanding and evidencing the mechanisms behind these persistent effects.

The project has two key objectives. First, it aims to investigate the historical origins and continuities of attitudes, values, and behaviours, contributing to established subfields within political sociology. Inspired by the perspective of historical persistence, it will develop and conduct research on attitudinal legacies related to political movements, political socialization and value change. Second, it seeks to advance the literature on historical persistence of political attitudes and behaviour by addressing theoretical and empirical gaps, particularly the mechanisms and pathways through which persistence operates. By leveraging geo-coded data from the SOEP dataset and integrating previously unused historical data sources, RegioPol will enable a deeper and more comprehensive analysis of contemporary political phenomena.

Phase 1: 2020-2024

The objective of the first phase of project RegioPol was to examine the interaction between individual attitudes, behaviors, and the regional context, shedding light on the causes and consequences of political discrepancies in German regions. Drawing on contemporary theories in political sociology and social psychology the project assumed that institutional anomie and the approach of geographic polarization of the electorate through residential mobility influence individual attitudes and behavior. Data from various sources, including the SOEP, INKAR, the Mitte-Study, the ESS, GLES, and CHES, were utilized to empirically examine the proposed relationships. At the individual level, the study investigated key factors such as voting behavior, market-based values, and anti-democratic, authoritarian, and xenophobic attitudes. It also explored how the political context influences non-political areas, such as regional attachment, migration intentions, and actual relocation behavior. At the regional level, the research focused on 401 districts (NUTS-3 level) and European countries. It analyzed imbalances between economic and non-economic institutions, regional in- and outmigration patterns, right-wing protests, regional affective polarization between parties, and the broader political context based on electoral outcomes from federal elections. Members of the first phase contributed to the following topics:

Regional Institutional Anomie and the Support for Radical right-wing Party

Amelie Nickel and Eva Groß (2023) analyzed regional variations in support for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) across 401 German districts, focusing on localized dynamics influencing right-wing populism. Using Institutional Anomie Theory, they examined how economic and non-economic institutions shape AfD vote shares through regression analysis. Their findings highlight significant regional differences. For one, the economic dominance was a stronger predictor of AfD support in eastern Germany compared to the West. Furthermore, regions with high economic inequality and economic dominance demonstrated increased support for the AfD, emphasizing the role of economic conditions in driving political preferences. Surprisingly, the anticipated protective effect of strong non-economic institutions against AfD support was inconsistent and sometimes contrary to theoretical expectations, suggesting a complex interaction between various factors. This study uncovers the nuanced spatial dynamics of right-wing populism in Germany, showing how economic dominance particularly impacts eastern regions. By applying Institutional Anomie Theory to voting behavior for the first time and introducing new indicators, the research provides valuable insights into regional variations in political preferences and the factors shaping support for right-wing populism.

Regional Out-Migration, Civic Engagement and the Electoral Success of the Populist Radical Right

Stephan Schütze (2023) examined the interplay between regional out-migration, civic engagement, and their influence on voting for the populist radical right, particularly the Alternative for Germany (AfD), during the 2017 federal election. This study focused on the debate on the success of populist radical right parties and their success in economically and culturally „left behind“ regions. He claims that regional out-migration as a social dimension of being left behind, has received limited attention in political geography. Furthermore, civic engagement, a form of social capital, is often considered significant, but its impact remains unclear. Using data from the SOEP and INKAR, logistic multilevel analyses were conducted. The study tested two theoretical models to clarify these relationships. A key finding was that regional out-migration moderates the link between civic engagement and AfD support. Typically, civically engaged individuals favor established democratic parties, but in regions with high out-migration, they are more likely to support the populist radical right. However, the analysis found no evidence that out-migration indirectly drives AfD support by reducing civic engagement. This research highlights the complex interactions between social and regional factors in shaping political behavior, emphasizing the need to consider migration patterns and social capital together to understand right-wing populism.

Selected Publications:

Nickel, A. (2022). Institutional Anomie, Market-Based Values and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes: A Multilevel Analysis in 28 European Countries. International Journal of Conflict and Violence (IJCV), Bd. 16 (2022). DOI: 10.11576/IJCV-5126
Nickel, A., & Groß, E. (2023). Assessing Regional Variation in Support for the Radical Right-Wing Party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD)—A Novel Application of Institutional Anomie Theory across German Districts. Social Sciences, 12(7), 412. DOI: 10.3390/socsci12070412
Schütze, S. (2023). Left Behind Together and Voting for Populism: Regional Out-Migration, Civic Engagement and the Electoral Success of Populist Radical Right Parties. Social Sciences, 12(8), 426. DOI: 10.3390/socsci12080426